Futures:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,985/mt, fluctuated rangebound between $1,980-$1,990/mt during the Asian session. Upon entering the European session, after a brief consolidation continuing from the Asian session, LME lead fell all the way to $1,965/mt, and finally closed at $1,965/mt, down $17.5/mt, a decrease of 0.88%. It recorded a large bearish candlestick.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2601 contract opened at 17,130 yuan/mt. After a slight consolidation at the beginning of the session, it touched a high of 17,165 yuan/mt before falling straight to a low of 17,020 yuan/mt, finally closing at 17,035 yuan/mt, down 90 yuan/mt, a decrease of 0.53%. It formed a bearish candlestick.
On the macro front:
The Bank of Japan is reportedly set to pledge further rate hikes at its meeting this week. Japan's Finance Minister, Sakaguchi Tsukuyo, expressed approval of the Bank of Japan's expected rate hikes. In the first 11 months, China's aggregate financing to the real economy (AFRE) increment exceeded the full-year amount of last year. Preliminary statistics show that the cumulative AFRE increment for the first eleven months of 2025 reached 33.39 trillion yuan, 399 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Three departments, including the Ministry of Commerce, jointly issued a document: Strengthen coordination between commerce and finance to boost consumption with greater efforts; An official from the Department of Finance of the Ministry of Commerce: The next step will be to promote the implementation of relevant measures and provide greater support for benefiting people's livelihoods and boosting consumption.
:
Lead ingot warrant supply was limited in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai region, suppliers' quotations were scarce, with most cargoes being self-picked up from the production site. SHFE lead prices fell again today, some suppliers showed reluctance to sell at low prices, and their quotations were relatively firm. However, more suppliers were still actively shipping goods. Quotations in mainstream regions were at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. Downstream enterprises purchased as needed, and transactions were moderate in some regions. Spot order supply of secondary refined lead was scarce, and suppliers' willingness to sell was poor. Mainstream tax-included ex-works quotations were at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price (individual sources at premiums of 50 yuan/mt ex-works). Individual sources in Central China and South-west China were at discounts of 75 yuan/mt. Tax-excluded refined lead ex-works quotations were around 15,800 yuan/mt. Downstream battery producers maintained just-in-time procurement, and their purchasing enthusiasm was moderate.
Inventory: On December 15, LME lead inventory decreased by 725 mt to 234,750 mt. As of December 8, the total SMM lead ingot social inventory across five areas fell to 20,500 mt, down 10,200 mt from December 1; down 3,200 mt from December 4, hitting a new 15-month low again.
Today's Lead Price Forecast:
Recently, some secondary lead smelters in north China, concerned about potential impacts in late December such as transportation disruptions due to cold weather and snow, and insufficient furnace temperatures, have raised scrap battery quotations and increased raw material procurement efforts. However, primary lead smelters in many parts of China are expected to resume production this week, coupled with the approaching SHFE lead delivery period, suppliers are anticipated to gradually transfer inventory to delivery warehouses, and lead ingot social warehouse inventory is expected to rise simultaneously. In the short term, SHFE lead is projected to continue fluctuating at lows or experience a slight decline, with attention needed on the support from raw material costs and the impact of accumulating lead ingot social inventory.
Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.
